Mid Year Review: Random Thoughts

This post will be a bit more sporadic than usual. I want to get some thoughts down somewhere. In short, I'll be going over what I had predicted correctly in my last post, what I didn't expect, and how I would play the markets over the next three months.

Mid Year Review: Random Thoughts

Dear Reader,

It's been a while since we last spoke - 3 months already! I hope you've been doing well in the meantime. I've been consistently freelancing for a handful of DAOs but have continued to look for the perfect full-time fit in crypto. So rest assured, I'll keep you updated once that time happens.

This post will be a bit more sporadic than usual. I want to get some thoughts down somewhere. In short, I'll be going over what I had predicted correctly in my last post, what I didn't expect, and how I would play the markets over the next three months.

What I was right about

In my last post, "2022 Market Expectations", I predicted that the bear market had arrived and expected volatile crypto assets to trend down. Below are the 90-day charts for BTC & ETH as of May 21st, 2022.

The only thing I wish to add is the correlation between crypto and stocks is seemingly getting stronger. With the US stock market sitting in such a precarious situation, it is unlikely buying and holding at these price levels in crypto is the "play".

NFTs as I had predicted, is holding relatively strong, especially in the "blue-chip" category. ETH prices for specific NFTs have remained solid, and while that is a strong indicator of the space's conviction, ETH itself has been decreasing in value over the same time leading to some implied losses there.

However, I still believe that NFTs will be a surprisingly durable way of keeping your ETH value in the long term based on the far lower supply and the lack of direct connections to macro environments. As projects continue to innovate and forge more substantial communities, I imagine the ETH asking prices will hold relatively steady compared to traditional crypto assets.

I have noticed a slimming of interesting, new projects released within the last three months. The pace of new minting opportunities seems to be slowing for ETH. All is not bad for the NFT space, though. It could be these opportunities are now moving to the SOL chain. With the benefit of low transaction costs and integration with Opensea and MagicEden, I can see more NFT projects adopting it in the future.

I encourage you to check out Magic Eden and see what types of innovations NFTs have already achieved on Solana. My absolute favorite innovation is in the gaming category and having the ability to play in-browser immediately.

Magic Eden
Magic Eden is the leading NFT Marketplace on Solana. Home to the next generation of digital creators. Discover the best and latest Solana NFT collections.

Some surprises

I'm sure everyone and their grandmother know about the Luna/UST collapse. If not, I'll sum it up quickly, the coin only worked when people trusted the system, as soon as deposits began to slow, the trust disappeared, and people fled to extract as much value as possible before it hit 0.

As some of the DAOs I have contributed to were Terra-based, I have a bit of a behind-the-curtain point-of-view on the situation and I'll be sure to write a separate write-up for that in the future. I'll keep it short, the people I worked with in the Terra ecosystem were some of the smartest, hardworking people I had met in crypto - period. The crash was not a rugpull. The entire chain was set upon an algorithmic stable coin which itself poses a considerable risk. However, the people building on it saw it as an opportunity to build on what they believed to be a building block for the future of decentralized money.

One of the exciting developments in the NFT space is the rise of utility NFTs. Utility NFTs were mostly a gaming or a social thing, whether it was "get a hat" in a video game or "gain access" to a party, the utility was a bit of a meme.

However, because of the bear market, which results in the NFT market being more "PvP" than "PvE"**, it makes sense that applications that provide a sense of advantage over other investors would rise to the top. The utility of these groups can vary from being able to access "alpha investors", access to upcoming mints, or access to a variety of groups.

It will be interesting to see how the developments of these days will encourage project holders to consistently improve their products through dapps, connections, and more.

**Less money in system, current players have to fight over it rather than in a bull market which is when more money is flowing into the system and "everyone can win"

How I would play the next 3 months

  1. Stay alive. Bear markets are hard mode. Crypto will have another bull market, but you're not going to be able to take advantage of it if you lose everything in the bear.
  2. Bear markets move slower than bull markets. Take extra time before making any investments. The chance your altcoin will be 5x while all others flounder is incredibly unrealistic. Now is the time to stop by projects' discords and chat with developers. Find out who you trust and who you see building the future of the space. You have the time. FOMO is dead.
  3. If you're subscribed to me, chances are, you're more than just interested in betting on crypto. If you have the opportunity, it is the best time to be looking for crypto positions. I've gone through my fair share of interviews and I'll write more about it in the future. However, if you're reading this, and want to get in touch with me, I have a couple of tips to help you on your journey.
  4. Feel free to reach out: heyuniverse@pm.me

Till next time, stay safe out there!


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